OTTAWA — It is hard for Canadians to escape talk of a trade war with the United States, with threats to Canada’s economy and sovereignty spurring shoppers to buy domestic, and sports fans to boo “The Star-Spangled Banner.”

South of the border, where Canadian politicians and businesses have tried to convince Republican decision-makers to change course, the bilateral beef between rappers Kendrick Lamar and Toronto’s Drake got a lot more attention than their prophecies of doom and gloom.

“I think every Canadian wakes up—all 40 million wake up—hearing about tariffs, worried about tariffs,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said Wednesday as he joined other premiers in Washington, D.C. In the U.S., though, “350 million people aren’t waking up worrying about tariffs,” he said.

Among U.S. lawmakers, there are signs that trade with Canada has begun to cut through the host of headline-grabbing moves by President Donald Trump, but mostly in states along the northern border.

The core of Canada’s argument is that tariffs would hurt the American economy, too. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce estimated that U.S. tariffs of 25 per cent on all imports would shrink real GDP by 1.8 per cent in Canada and one per cent in the U.S. With 25 per cent retaliatory tariffs, the analysis estimated that decline would reach 2.6 per cent in Canada (about $78 billion) and 1.6 per cent below the border (about US$467 billion).

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told those gathered for his recent Canada-U.S. Economic Summit in Toronto that Canada has allies in the U.S. who understand these numbers, but even those facing thousands of job losses have been reluctant—or afraid—to speak up.

“That’s a total reflection of the nature of political sensitivities in the United States,” Trudeau said during a closed-door portion of the meeting, a recording of which The Logic obtained. He suggested the “near miss” before the 30-day reprieve prompted some to start saying tariffs might be “a good tool,” but not when it comes to Canada: “There are allies sort of poking their heads out of their caves to try and pass those messages along.”

After Trump invoked emergency powers to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s senior vice-president John Murphy said duties would not solve problems with fentanyl or illegal migration; they “will only raise prices for American families and upend supply chains.” The U.S. Travel Association took notice when Trudeau urged Canadians to vacation closer to home. The association warned a 10 per cent drop in Canadian travel could cost 14,000 jobs and US$2.1 billion in spending.

Last week, Trump announced 25 per cent tariffs on all foreign imports of steel and aluminum starting March 12, removing an exemption Canada received in 2019. In response, Murphy noted that the U.S. gets nearly 60 per cent of its aluminum from Canada. “If implemented, these tariffs will add substantially to the costs of U.S. manufacturers, whose competitiveness will suffer,” he wrote in a social media post. Most of the aluminum comes from Quebec, whose premier, François Legault, has suggested retaliating with an export tax on aluminum and floated the idea of shipping it to Europe instead.

The warnings, though welcome from a Canadian perspective, seem mild given the stakes. The U.S. imported about US$412.7 billion worth of goods from Canada and exported about US$349.4 billion to this country in 2024, making Canada the top destination for American products. It is also the largest export market for 36 states, according to 2023 data. When Ottawa announced its plan to retaliate with tariffs on $30 billion worth of U.S. goods, federal officials made clear that some of the products on the list were important to states with influential Republicans.

Vermont imports about US$2.6 billion worth of goods from Canada each year, with electricity and fuel oil topping the list. It sends US$680 million in goods into Canada each year too. Gov. Phil Scott, a Republican, said he is “not a fan” of raising tariffs on such an important trading partner, but he wants the state to do its own research.

“We should be fair and take time to understand what problem the president intends to solve, the results he expects to get, and the risks he’s willing to take, before we cast judgment,” Scott said in a statement last week as he announced a multi-agency assessment of the potential impact.

At the recent confirmation hearing for Jamieson Greer, the incoming U.S. trade representative, senators from border states and beyond warned that a trade war with Canada could harm their constituents and economies, from tourism in Nevada to apples in Washington.

Sen. Maggie Hassan is a Democrat from New Hampshire, where fuel oil is the top Canadian import—accounting for US$444 million worth of trade in 2023. She told Greer that Irving Oil, based in New Brunswick, advised some residents they would see an extra 10 per cent on their home heating bills. “People are really worried about being able to heat their homes,” she said.

Sen. Steve Daines, a Republican, said farmers and ranchers in Montana worry they will pay more for fertilizer and energy. He stressed the need to find new export markets to soften the blow of retaliatory tariffs on commodities like wheat, beet sugar, pulse crops and barley.

Walter Schweitzer, president of the non-partisan Montana Farmers Union, said farmers in the state, where agriculture accounts for one-third of US$1 billion in annual exports to Canada, have told him quietly that tariffs would be “disastrous.” But he said it is hard to find someone to say it out loud because it could make them one of Trump’s targets. “We all kind of risk and fear that by our own leader,” Schweitzer said. 

When it comes to American residents across the land, views seem mixed. Canadian polling firm Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 eligible voters in the U.S. on Jan. 23 and 24 on the relationship between the two countries. Forty-eight per cent said the tariffs would affect them negatively when it comes to the price of goods. That number climbed to 54 per cent for those living in states that share a border with Canada. 

At the same time, 34 per cent of respondents were positive about the effect on the U.S. economy overall, and 22 per cent were neutral. Those who voted for Trump were more positive about tariffs overall. The survey was done with GZero Media, part of political consultancy Eurasia Group.

Beth Burke, CEO of the Canadian American Business Council, a Washington, D.C.-based non-profit that promotes trade between the two countries, said many companies in the U.S. know how integrated they are with Canada, while others are learning. “I think everyday Americans are quickly realizing how important this is,” she said.