Conservatives bet tax cuts will spur economy enough to cover new spending
The Conservatives are hoping to spur economic activity that would generate enough tax revenue to cover most of the $34 billion in promised new spending over the next four years—while pledging to cut $75 billion in taxes and making it harder to raise them again.
Special Report
Conservatives bet tax cuts will spur economy enough to cover new spending
Pierre Poilievre’s plan would reduce the deficit but not eliminate it, despite deep spending cuts and upbeat revenue projections
The Conservatives are hoping to spur economic activity that would generate enough tax revenue to cover most of the $34 billion in promised new spending over the next four years—while pledging to cut $75 billion in taxes and making it harder to raise them again.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre launched his costed platform on Tuesday, just under a week before election day. He is pledging to shrink, but not yet eliminate, the budget deficit he blames on the Liberal government of former prime minister Justin Trudeau.
Here’s what you need to know.
More taxes to axe (or reduce): “A Conservative government understands that a dollar left in the hands of the person who earned it is always better spent than a dollar in the hands of the politician who taxed it,” Poilievre said in Woodbridge, Ont.
The Conservatives would reduce the lowest income tax bracket rate from 15 to 12.75 per cent by 2028—beginning with a 0.75 percentage point reduction next year. The parliamentary budget officer estimated this would cost a total of $44.3 billion over five years. The Conservatives are also promising to “never hike taxes” and to bring in legislation that would “ban new or higher federal taxes without asking taxpayers first in a referendum.”
Economic growth: The platform relies heavily on revenue the party expects to generate by removing regulatory restrictions—such as clean-fuel and electricity regulations, and the oil and gas emissions cap.
More broadly, the Conservatives expect to generate $6.4 billion by cutting “red tape” by 25 per cent within two years and a “two-for-one rule” that would remove two regulations for every new one. (U.S. President Donald Trump has a similar rule, although his ratio is 10 to one.)
The platform also forecasts that revenue from a strengthened housing industry will add $12.8 billion to federal coffers over four years, even though they are pledging to waive the GST on newly built homes priced under $1.3 million. “Obviously, the carpenters, electricians, plumbers, they get paid salaries. The companies make profits, and they all pay taxes,” Poilievre said Tuesday.
Not yet back to black: The platform does not project a balanced budget by the end of its four-year horizon, but claims it would get closer than the current government’s road map. To that end, the party is proposing $56 billion worth of spending cuts over that period, including savings on debt-servicing. They include its plan to defund English-language services of the CBC; cut international aid “to dictators, terrorists and global bureaucracies;” and lower what the public service spends on outside consultants.
Conservatives say these savings, plus the expected growth, would help reduce the deficit to $31.4 billion in this fiscal year, lower than the $42.2 billion projected in the 2024 fall economic statement. The Conservative platform then projects the deficit to increase slightly to $31.5 billion in 2026-27 before shrinking to $23.6 billion in 2027-28 and $14.2 billion in 2028-29. The latest fiscal update put the deficit for that year at $27.8 billion.
What’s new for the innovation economy: The Conservatives are touting Poilievre’s proposal to defer taxes on capital gains that are reinvested in Canada through the end of next year. “This will be like rocket fuel for our economy,” the platform says.
The party is betting the tax holiday will spur a lot of financing and construction of projects; when coupled with the cancellation of the planned increase to the capital gains inclusion rate, the party estimates, the measure will boost federal revenues by $13.1 billion over the next four fiscal years.
To further increase the pool of capital for businesses, the Conservatives would let people put an extra $5,000 into their tax-free savings accounts if they invest the money in Canadian companies. And the platform pledges unspecified reforms to the Liberal-launched investment tax credits for clean manufacturing.
The Conservatives are promising to finally implement open banking to let consumers more easily move their financial data between service providers—another ask from the innovation economy that the previous Liberal government promised to fulfill yet repeatedlydelayed. More broadly, the Conservatives are proposing an “oligopoly review” in a bid to boost competition in federally-regulated sectors.
Conservative MP Rick Perkins previously toldThe Logic that a Poilievre government would incentivize R&D through the tax code and cut programs that offer large subsidies, many of which go to subsidiaries of multinationals. Tuesday’s platform does not address the scientific research and experimental development (SR&ED) tax incentive, which businesses of all sizes and sectors have long said needs an overhaul.
Less for AI: The Conservatives say they’d “reduce funding for artificial intelligence initiatives” by almost $2.28 billion between 2025 and 2029. The platform doesn’t spell out what that means, but the cuts line up almost exactly with sums the Liberals pledged in 2024 to spend on building up Canada’s AI compute capacity ($2 billion) and launch other programs. Tech leaders have largely backed Ottawa’s plans to boost the country’s AI processing power, even if they disagree on how the money should be spent.
The platform’s only other mention of AI is a promise to pass new laws against deepfakes of intimate images.
Getting behind EVs: The Conservatives are committing to maintain “all existing federal supports to the auto sector, including the clean incentives for the auto-sector supply chain.” The Liberals have pledged tens of billions for battery plants and facilities that make or process electric-vehicle materials and components.
The Tories had previously criticized the awards as “massive corporate subsidies,” and called for rules to ensure the factories can’t spend the money on temporary foreign workers. The party’s platform now says EVs are part of the party’s approach of using technology rather than taxes to address climate change.
A Poilievre government would, however, lift the Liberal mandate requiring all new vehicles sold in Canada to be zero-emissions by 2030, which automakers have opposed. The platform estimates cutting the mandate will boost federal revenues by $11.2 billion between 2026—when it’s scheduled to start phasing in—and 2029.
Trade war: Poilievre did not dwell in his news conference on Trump’s threats to Canada’s economy and sovereignty, but pitched his plan as a way for Canadians to “stand up to Trump and anyone else from a position of strength.” Its proposals include moves to improve interprovincial trade; measures to make it easier to build energy infrastructure; a “Buy Canada” federal procurement policy; and a promise to eliminate the GST on Canadian-made vehicles for as long as Trump’s tariffs on the auto sector remain in place. There is also $225 million over two years for loans to help businesses avoid layoffs due to the trade war.
The Conservatives estimate that counter-tariffs against the U.S. will generate $20 billion in revenue this fiscal year, which Poilievre said will make its way back to Canadians through his planned tax cuts and other supports.
What isn’t changing: Poilievre is promising to honour the Liberals’ commitments to provinces and territories on a collection of health-care and affordability programs. The Liberals have rolled out a national dental-care system, while closing child-care deals with 11 provinces and territories and pharmacare agreements with four. The Conservative platform pledges to maintain transfers to pay for those programs, but doesn’t say whether the party would try to reach more deals with individual provinces and territories to fill in the gaps.
This story was updated to add detail on how the Conservatives propose to reduce government spending
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