Last November, the leaders of 197 countries left Glasgow barely clinging to the possibility of keeping global warming below the fateful 2 C. In a pared-down agreement following extended negotiations at the 26th United Nations Conference of the Parties on climate change, (or COP26), the heads of state agreed to reconvene a year later with more robust plans on how to follow through on their commitments. 

The world has changed dramatically since then. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the associated energy crisis, coupled with the soaring cost of living, have overshadowed some of the feelings of urgency for more ambitious climate action. 

With COP27 opening on Sunday in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, climate policy experts say many governments and organizations—including in Canada—haven’t done the homework they were assigned in Glasgow. 

The two-week-long summit is poised to be tense, underscored by competing challenges of addressing climate change and the growing list of global crises. “It’s going to be tough,” said Eddy Perez, international diplomacy director at Climate Action Network Canada. “The big challenge is going to be: how do we not walk back these pledges ​​at a moment when many countries are actually exploring expansion of oil and gas in response to the energy crisis?” 

A UN report published 10 days before the conference found that the world’s climate plans as they stand are insufficient. If every country meets its every commitment, the planet will still warm by about 2.5 C by the end of the century, a level of warming that could trigger irreversible catastrophe for the planet and humanity. By 2030, warming will soar 10.6 per cent above 2010 levels before slowly starting to decrease. 

“We are in a race against time,” Sameh Shoukry, Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs and COP27 president-designate, said in a statement. “Several of those who are expected to do more, are far from doing enough,” he said, “and the consequences of this [are] affecting lives and livelihoods across the globe.” 

As Canadian delegates pack their bags for Sharm el-Sheikh, here’s a look at what they agreed to last year and what progress they’ve made since. 

Expectation: End financing for foreign fossil fuel projects by the end of 2022.

Reality: Canada was among 21 countries at COP26 that agreed to end direct public finance for coal, oil and gas development by the end of this year and shift investment to clean energy. 

Export Development Canada , which issues most of Canada’s foreign fossil fuel financing, told The Logic it is on track to end such financing by the end of this year. It facilitated $560 million in direct financing to foreign fossil fuel companies and projects in 2021, but said it didn’t have 2022 numbers available. That’s down from $994 million in 2020 and $2.25 billion in 2019. 

Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault did not directly say whether the government as a whole will meet the target, emphasizing the immediate need to help wean European allies off Russian oil and gas. In March, the government increased oil and gas exports to Europe by 300,000 barrels a day. 

“Some in Canada believe that given the urgency of the energy security issue, the government must set aside its concerns and actions relating to climate change. Meanwhile, others believe that any production of fossil fuels—even if to aid Europe in a time of crisis—should not be pursued given concerns about climate impacts,” Guilbeault told The Logic by email through spokesperson Katilin Power. “Neither of these extremes represent a tenable position. Canada has a duty to respond to calls for assistance from its European friends while also ensuring it continues to aggressively address the existential threat climate change poses to our planet.”

Guilbeault said the government will ensure energy reinforcement for Europe “accounts for and works to minimize domestic emissions and ensure any net additional emissions are incorporated into the government’s current climate plan.”

Expectation: Update net-zero plans in financing portfolios

Reality: Canada’s Big Five banks signed onto the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero last year, an umbrella group meant to hold organizations across financial sectors to account on their climate pledges. The 120 members in the banking alliance are required to submit climate-change plans that meet criteria set by a UN campaign called Race to Zero. That includes pledging to reach net-zero emissions in their portfolios by 2050 or sooner and come back within 18 months with a solid plan and interim targets for how to achieve that goal. 

Twelve months on, the Big Five’s plans fall short of the Race to Zero parameters.

Organizations agreed to contribute their “fair share” to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in their financing portfolios by 50 per cent by 2030. The language leaves room for some interpretation, but it appears none of the banks come close to that goal. BMO is the only Big Five bank to include absolute emissions targets—which account for the overall greenhouse gasses released by borrowers—but its targets are still well below the agreed-to criteria. Plans from RBC, CIBC, Scotiabank and TD so far focus solely on emissions intensity, which reflects the amount of CO2 a borrower produces per unit of energy; not its overall emissions. 

Some U.S. banks have reportedly threatened to leave the alliance and Canadian banks have also raised concerns that some criteria are too restrictive—particularly around phasing out fossil fuels—and could put them at legal risk. Race to Zero issued a letter in September clarifying that members can “independently find their own route.” 

Still, members will soon have to confront their delays in creating more robust plans around other criteria. Under the alliance, banks need to publish a progress report within a year of setting their targets. Those have to include stats on both emissions intensity and absolute emissions.  

Expectation: Raise US$100 billion annually for climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries by 2023

Reality: Canada and Germany were put in charge of wrangling US$100 billion annually from developed countries to finance climate mitigation and adaptation efforts in vulnerable regions. They were tasked with securing commitments by COP26, but missed the deadline and moved the target to 2023. 

A progress report published on the delivery plan published last week does not disclose how much money countries have raised in the 12 months since setting the new deadline. The report does, however, indicate that demand for financing has increased. “It is abundantly clear that the global investments needed to respond to the climate change threat are much larger than US$100 billion,” it reads. 

Expectation: Strengthen climate targets to align with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals.

Reality: Canada showed up in Glasgow with a commitment to cut emissions by 40 to 45 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. The government agreed to return the following year with an updated plan showing how it’s going to achieve that. 

Just 24 countries have submitted updated climate plans to the UN since Glasgow, and Canada isn’t one of them. 

Although Ottawa has produced an Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP), climate policy experts say it still falls short of its own target for reducing greenhouse gasses. “The ERP doesn’t even reach the lower end of this range,” said Caroline Brouillette, national policy manager at Climate Action Network Canada. “The projections get us to 36 per cent and it’s not clear where an additional four per cent is found.”

Brouillette also criticized Ottawa’s plan for being short on details for how it will achieve net-zero as well as other pledges it made in Glasgow. Currently, there’s no clear way to know whether Canada is making progress on commitments like reversing deforestation and drastically reducing methane emissions. 

“We were looking forward to the ERP being this clear and detailed work plan for the government to achieve its climate targets: Who is responsible for which policy? On what timeline? With what budget?” she said. “What we have is only a very vague implementation annex.” 

Brouillette expects Canada to be scrutinized at COP27 for what she describes as an implementation gap. “As one of the largest emitters in the world… Canada will have to answer to how it’s playing its role in the context of its responsibilities, and its capacity as an industrialized country, to do more faster.”