Most respondents to The Logic’s latest subscriber survey said the U.S. election will have an outsized impact on Canadian business, with the vast majority picking Kamala Harris as their preferred candidate. 

Over 83 per cent thought Democratic candidate Kamala Harris would be better for Canadian business, with the rest believing Donald Trump has more favourable policies. Readers agreed that a successful economy in the U.S. would likely bring forth the same in Canada. Most of the subscribers agreed on what needs to be done, but some disagreed on who will best implement it. 

The United States is Canada’s biggest trading partner. Trade policy was top of mind for almost 90 per cent of respondents, followed by industrial and energy policy. 

Subscribers who said Harris would be a better choice argued Trump’s proposed 10 to 20 per cent tariff regime would increase export costs for Canadians. Many respondents to the survey pointed to his past protectionist policies: blocking the purchase of Canadian jets, replacing NAFTA and pledging to put tariffs on the Mexican auto industry. Others said Trump—who has dubbed himself “a tariff man”—would lead the U.S. to enter into a more “contentious” trade relationship with Canada.

Over 38 per cent of respondents said a Kamala Harris presidency would be somewhat positive, and 40 per cent said it would be neutral. Seven per cent said it would be very negative and 10 per cent said it would be somewhat negative. 

Harris’s continuation of Biden’s approach to trade, and her dedication to rejecting isolationism would be beneficial to Canada, said some respondents. They thought Harris has a better understanding of Canadian business, too, and a more reasonable approach to negotiations. Though both candidates seem more inclined toward greater protectionism, Harris is the “lesser of two evils,” one reader said. 

“Canadian businesses need consistency, not policy and practices that turn on the whim of a dime (or tweet),” one subscriber wrote, while another called Trump a “wild card.” One reader was concerned Trump’s loss could instigate a civil war.

One subscriber who said Trump would be better for Canada argued his policies are more likely to strengthen trade ties, and to increase North America’s manufacturing output and shift its dependency away from China. Trump would bring a more “transactional” attitude, which could be good for Canadian businesses, according to another subscriber. Meanwhile, those subscribers said Harris’s likely continuation of the Biden administration’s trade policies would cause the economy to stagnate. 

Almost 12 per cent of respondents thought a Trump administration would be somewhat positive for Canadian business and seven per cent were neutral. Thirty-five and 44 per cent were somewhat negative and very negative, respectively, on the impact of a second Trump term on Canada.

Both groups pointed at the opposite candidate’s potential to worsen international conflicts. Those who chose Harris as the better option said there would be a lower risk of global unrest under her leadership, and that markets would react more favourably to certainty. One reader who chose Trump, however, called Harris’s foreign policy “dangerous,” and lauded Trump’s inclination to increase defence spending, adding that it would have ripple effects on the Canadian economy. 

The candidates’ attitudes toward technology would influence Canadian regulation, subscribers said. Trump’s ideas for less stringent AI and crypto regulation would spur similar policies in Canada, a reader said. But another subscriber disagreed, saying Harris’s policies would enable more cross-border flow, benefitting Canadian tech and engineering companies. “I think we will enter a golden age of technological development under a Harris presidency,” they wrote.

Some respondents said Conservative leadership in Canada could make relations more harmonious for a Trump presidency. “If he does win, I do wonder if it would be more beneficial for us to have our own Conservatives in power,” one said. 

Subscribers said the election will impact their own industries, though to varying degrees. Respondents in industrial manufacturing, forestry, health care and financial services had moderate concerns, while one reader working in security said they would be heavily affected. The general economic state of the U.S. will impact everyone in Canada, another said: “Our success is tied to their success.”

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Methodology

The Logic emailed subscribers a private link to an online survey on Oct. 16 and the survey closed Oct. 18. Respondents’ identities were kept anonymous, and they were encouraged to submit comments. Subscribers were first asked, “How much of an impact do you expect the U.S. election to have on Canadian businesses?” and given the option to choose the degree of impact from “large,” “moderate,” “small,” or “no impact.”

They were then asked which U.S. presidential nominee would be better for Canadian businesses—Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. They were asked separately on what effect they expect a Donald Trump presidency and Kamala Harris presidency would have on Canadian businesses, with options: “very positive,” “somewhat positive,” “neutral,” “somewhat negative,” and “very negative” for each.

Respondents then were asked to choose which top three policy areas will be most important from Canadian business, between: “trade policy,” “energy and environment,” “taxation and government spending,” “industrial policy, such as support for U.S. industries,” “military and national defence,” “democracy and rule of law,” “competition and tech regulation,” “immigration,” “Canada-U.S. border,” “foreign policy,” or “other,” where they were asked to elaborate. Finally, they were asked if their own company or organization will be affected by the outcome of the U.S. election, and then to elaborate on why or why not.