If you ask Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, whatever the outcome of the tense negotiations between U.S. auto workers and Detroit automakers, there will be one big winner: Tesla.

Ford and General Motors face “a potential nightmare situation,” Ives wrote in a recent note, with the potential for a sweeping strike by the United Auto Workers that could put their EV transformations on hold just as they were beginning in earnest. Elon Musk and non-unionized Tesla, Ives wrote, will have “champagne now on ice.”