Canadian banks’ lead in artificial intelligence is finally about to show up where it really matters: in their bottom lines.

A new report from London-based Evident, an AI benchmarking and intelligence platform, showed Canada once again maintained its position as the highest-scoring region for AI maturity in its index of 50 international banks. RBC, Canada’s highest-scoring bank and the third farthest ahead in AI in global rankings, was surpassed by JPMorgan Chase and Capital One. The group led by CEO Dave McKay joined an even more rarified group of just eight lenders that disclosed what they expect their return on investment from AI to be in the near future.

Getting rich: At an investor day in March, RBC disclosed that it expects to generate between $700 million and $1 billion in enterprise value from AI by 2027. TD Bank also disclosed last month—after Evident finished collecting data—that it expects AI will help it both increase revenue and decrease costs by $500 million per year, for a total annual boost of $1 billion.

Forecasting a return on investment “reflects genuine operational maturity rather than optics,” the report said. “The fact that so few banks are disclosing these critical figures implies that many banks are just simply not there yet.”

Fewer bragging rights: While Canada maintained its position as the highest-scoring region for AI maturity among banks outside the U.S., some of the country’s major lenders lost ground in Evident’s index. The ranking compares their AI progress in four categories: talent acquisition and development, investment in innovation, leadership focus on AI and transparency around efforts to develop AI responsibly.

TD dropped from ninth place to 13th thanks to declines in the talent and innovation investment categories, the two most heavily weighted in the index, making RBC the only Canadian bank in the top 10. Canada can also no longer say that its Big Five banks are all in the top 25, with Scotiabank sliding nine positions to 29th place because of declines in all four categories. CIBC stayed steady at number 22, while BMO moved up five positions to 19 thanks to a big improvement following new disclosures of its AI strategy.

The report noted the disparity between top-performing and bottom-performing banks in each region is getting wider. The biggest banks “have the resources to build research labs, patent portfolios and talent pipelines—creating a sharp divide between leaders and mid-tier banks that cannot keep up,” Evident said.

Show me the money: The banking sector isn’t alone in having little evidence of return on investment from AI. Corporate AI investment reached US$252.3 billion in 2024, but a July Massachusetts Institute of Technology study suggests 95 per cent of organizations are getting zero return. Concerns are growing among academics and investors that the gap between the massive amounts companies are spending on AI and the value they’re getting in return will cause an economic crash.

The report found an increase in tangible results from banks’ investments in AI, however, saying there’s a correlation between a bank’s score on the index and the number of AI use cases it discloses. Its authors believe we are at an “inflection point”: “AI is no longer framed solely as experimental, but as a driver of measurable business value.”