Almost three-quarters of respondents to The Logic’s latest subscriber survey said Alberta secession from Canada would hurt the province’s oil and gas industry, and would be an economic “disaster” for Albertans.

In a province of over five million people, a separatist group said over 300,000 residents signed a petition this spring in support of a secession vote. The petition was submitted to Elections Alberta in May but was ultimately quashed by an Alberta judge who ruled the group failed to consult First Nations before the petition was approved.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith then announced the “referendum on a referendum” to decide whether the province should vote on separating from the rest of Canada. On Oct.19, Albertans head to the polls.

Nearly 74 per cent of readers believe that separation would affect the province’s oil and gas industry negatively, with 17 per cent thinking it would be positive. “I was born in Alberta and of Cree heritage,” said one subscriber. “I think economically it would be a disaster and the post-separation costs would be astronomical.”

Respondents said an independent Albertan oilpatch would have difficulty attracting long-term investment, lose subsidies from Ottawa and become beholden to the U.S. The industry would also struggle to gain access to market opportunities outside of Canada and the U.S., subscribers said, because of Alberta’s inland geography.

“We would be locked in years of negotiations and uncertainty, and we would become completely landlocked when it comes to in-country coastal access,” said one Albertan.

Seventy-nine per cent of subscribers believe the majority of Albertans will vote against separation in the Oct. 19 “referendum on a referendum,” and even if that didn’t happen, 89 per cent believe Albertans would ultimately vote to remain with Canada. Eighty-seven per cent of respondents said they do not support separation for Alberta.

“Separatism is a loud but small interest within Alberta,” said one respondent. Many said that the majority do not want to separate, with one reader saying the economic consequences are too severe. 

This week, a report commissioned by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce estimated that secession may cause Alberta’s economy to shrink by $62 billion. “I want to believe that cooler heads will prevail and that the economic evidence against separation is stronger than for it,” said another respondent.

Several readers said they recognize separatists’ frustrations, though. “I support the aims of the movement to get a better deal for Alberta from Ottawa and to better respect our natural resources sector and the important economic role it plays in Canada,” said one subscriber. A pro-independence organization found that separation will cost a one-time expense of $5 billion, followed by a surplus of about $22.2 billion to $32.1 billion annually.

Support for Alberta separatism has grown in recent years, fuelled by Albertans feeling the province’s economic contributions are not matched by its political influence in Ottawa.

“I don’t support separation, but western alienation is a long-standing and real issue, not just for Alberta,” said one respondent. “Alberta is most noticeable as we have the economic strength and culture to make the most noise about it.” Others said Ontario and Quebec treat western Canada “as an afterthought.”

“We would be happy if we got what Quebec has,” said one Albertan. Another said although they do not see separation as the solution, people in the province are fed up with Quebec and Ontario’s influence on Alberta’s business.

Last week, oilsands major Imperial Oil took a public stance against Alberta separatism. Executives interviewed by The Logic previously, including oilpatch leaders, expressed sympathy for the frustrations driving separation, but most said they opposed secession.

Smith has said previously she would personally vote to remain part of Canada, but 80 per cent of respondents don’t agree with how the premier handled the separatism issue. One subscriber called it an “absolute failure of leadership.” Many said that Smith has fanned the flames of secession for political reasons. “She has done everything she can to stack the deck for the separatists,” said one respondent.

A small minority, 11 per cent, do agree with Smith’s handling of the issue, saying she “had the courage to call it out” and is “a strong leader and advocate” for all of the province’s concerns and interests. One reader said that Smith is “doing the best she can with a very thorny issue.”

Readers said Alberta separating would weaken Canada and risk its sovereignty, with one saying the province “would become a pawn for the U.S. government” and another saying separation would create major problems for Alberta as “the U.S. would be looking for its next state.”

“Alberta is a big part of Canada, as is every province…” said one reader. “We love Calgary and the hikes in the mountains; it’s a big part of being Canadian.”