Despite political drama and trade tensions, Canadian snowbirds still plan on flocking to Florida this winter—and they’re reserving stays earlier and paying higher rates than last year.

Canadians are locking down their long-term Florida stays nearly a month earlier this year compared to 2024 and paying a 70 per cent premium to do so, according to data shared with The Logic by Key Data, which tracks reservations on Airbnb, Vrbo and dozens of other property management companies.

Stephen Fine, president of Snowbird Advisor, a Canadian membership service that helps snowbirds plan vacations, said most customers have a business-as-usual attitude. Travel insurance sales are similar to last year, Fine said, and snowbirds who have spent past winters in Florida have told him they intend to return this year. 

The surge in snowbird bookings is an outlier as most travel between Canada and the U.S. has collapsed. According to an April survey by Longwoods International, a Toronto-based market researcher, 60 per cent of Canadians said current U.S. policies, trade practices and political statements made them less likely to travel to the country in the next 12 months. More than a third have cancelled plans to travel to the U.S. this year.

In July, return trips from Canada to the U.S. by car fell 37 per cent, the seventh straight month of year-over-year declines, according to Statistics Canada. Return trips by air were down 26 per cent compared to a year earlier. 

Fine said that snowbirds are a different beast. “Snowbirds are more tied to the U.S. than other travellers,” he said, adding that snowbirds tend to be financially and emotionally entangled with the U.S. 

That entanglement has made snowbirds a reliable source of winter tourism dollars for Florida, contributing US$6.5 billion to the state’s economy each year according to a 2018 estimate. Between October and December last year, 742,000 Canadians visited Florida, according to state tourism data.

Around half of snowbirds own U.S. real estate, according to Snowbird Advisor’s 2023 survey. In Florida alone, Canadians represented 17 per cent of international homebuyers, investing US$1.3 billion in 2023, according to Florida Realtors. “You’re going to go to that property—you’re not going to let it sit empty for the winter,” Fine said.

The survey also found that 68 per cent of snowbirds prefer to drive to the U.S., and most return year after year, often spending long stretches in the same community, Fine said. “They have communities and friends they’ve built around these places.”

Not everyone is following the pattern. While many snowbirds own property in the U.S., many others stay in hotels and RV parks. And there are signs these snowbirds may be wavering.

Richard Clavet, who owns eight hotels and motels concentrated in Hollywood and Hallandale Beach—all of which cater to Quebec snowbirds—said this year has been far from business as usual. As of mid-August, reservations for the upcoming winter season are running about 50 per cent lower than what he’d normally see. 

Clavet said he collects deposits from snowbird clientele in July in order to lock down rental agreements for the start of August. Many guests book years in advance, but this year some have declined to pay deposits in protest against U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war with Canada. “In Canada, there’s peer pressure. It’s a bad thing to go spend your money in the U.S.A. because Mr. Trump is so bad,” Clavet said. “They are just throwing the rock because everybody’s throwing the rock.”

The boycott has piqued the interest of lawmakers. In April, the U.S. Congress reintroduced the Canadian Snowbird Act, proposing to extend visa-free stays from 180 to 240 days for Canadians aged 50 and over. An earlier version had been sponsored in 2023 by Marco Rubio, then-Florida senator and current Secretary of State. 

Fine suspects politically minded snowbirds, like those hesitating to book Clavet’s properties, may be waiting to see how the trade dispute evolves before committing to winter plans. Clavet agrees—and he anticipates an uptick as winter approaches. “When you start to feel the hairs from your nose sticking together because it’s cold, you might start to think, ‘Gee, Richard, do you have rooms available?’” he said. “Well, hurry up, I have a few left.”