The Parliamentary Budget Office expects the deficit to make a sharp 32 per cent jump this fiscal year, as economic growth weakens and the new Liberal government promises big spending and cuts to revenue. (The Logic)

Talking point: The PBO offered the projections as a benchmark to compare against economic assumptions the government will make in the Nov. 4 budget. The PBO did not factor in the government’s spending review, which calls for departments to identify savings of 15 per cent over the next three years. It also does not include government commitments to increase defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035. The PBO’s estimates, though, do set the scene for greater debt servicing costs and slumping economic growth, as the impact of U.S. tariffs and associated investment uncertainty take hold. It expects weaker trade conditions to lower real GDP by 0.5 per cent by 2030.