Statistics Canada’s monthly tally of gross domestic product found that manufacturing output jumped one per cent from April, the most since January 2023. Preliminary data suggest GDP rose 0.1 per cent in June, which implies the economy grew at an annual rate of about 2.2 per cent in the second quarter. (The Logic)

Talking point: Characterizing the Canadian economy is getting difficult. It’s definitely not hot—retail trade reversed the previous month’s gain, as output dropped to the lowest since September 2023. But nor is it cold; 15 of the 20 sectors posted gains in May, and growth at an annual rate of around two per cent would exceed the Bank of Canada’s latest forecast. Just right, then? Not really. Government spending accounted for an outsized share of economic output in May; much of the consumer demand is coming from immigration, as GDP per capita continues to decline; and productivity growth is negative. Canada appears to have survived higher-for-longer interest rates without tipping into recession, so the one thing you can say about the economy is that it’s resilient.