COP26 organizers published a draft agreement Wednesday, offering a glimpse into where countries stand a week and a half into UN climate negotiations in Glasgow. While the report shows some progress on support for phasing out fossil fuels and limiting CO2, parties haven’t reached a consensus on key issues in tackling the climate crisis. Here’s what you need to know about what’s in the draft—and what’s missing:
Bolder emissions cuts: The proposal calls on countries to speed up emissions cuts and update targets before the end of next year, noting that existing commitments won’t thwart catastrophic global warming. It suggests cutting CO2 by 45 per cent below 2010 levels by 2030 to reach net zero by mid-century. That’s slightly more ambitious than the upper range of Canada’s emissions-reduction target of reducing greenhouse gases by 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by the next decade.
Ending support for fossil fuels: There’s brief mention of phasing out coal and fossil-fuel subsidies. While details are scant, it’s a significant addition that’s not included in the Paris Agreement. Canada has already agreed to stop backing coal and fossil-fuel projects at home and abroad, so it shouldn’t take much cajoling to gain the country’s support.
What’s missing: Article 6—a major unresolved piece of the Paris Agreement that seeks to create universal accounting rules for trading carbon credits between countries—is entirely absent. Laura Zizzo, CEO of Manifest Climate, a tech platform that helps clients identify and manage climate risk, said that while the omission is surprising at this stage, she expects carbon markets to figure into the final report. “We’re hearing a lot of discussion of something coming on Article 6. How significant that will be in practice is yet to be seen,” she said. “For example, there’s concern it’s going to be too voluntary.” The report also flags that rules on how countries will report their progress on emissions targets and other agreements are yet to be decided.
What’s next: Leaders have just a few days left to reach a consensus on their approach to keeping warming to 1.5 C. Zizzo said the lack of statements in the draft that start with “decides” (rather than “welcomes” or “urges” or “recognizes”) suggests parties will likely walk away from Glasgow with few new binding commitments. The U.S. and China haven’t endorsed the proposal, which doesn’t bode well for reaching a consensus. They did, however, publish a joint statement later Wednesday pledging to cooperate on tackling the climate crisis.
“It’s a draft decision. Things will probably change. But that [consensus] is less likely and maybe less important,” said Zizzo. “From our perspective, it’s why finance and markets and non-state actors need to really just move, because international diplomacy—although very important—is just not fast moving enough for the urgency of this.”