About three-quarters of respondents to The Logic’s latest survey said Prime Minister Mark Carney is the best federal party leader for the economy, and that they believe he is best-suited to handle the ongoing U.S.-Canada trade war. 

The new Liberal leader has called a federal election for April 28, a little less than four months after former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation. Tariff tensions with Canada’s biggest trading partner have become the focus of this year’s race, putting Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre on the backfoot after years as the presumptive next prime minister.

Over 77 per cent of subscribers think Carney is best suited to address the trade war, compared to Poilievre’s 19 per cent. A similar number said Carney is the top option for Canada’s economy, at 74 per cent and 23 per cent for the Liberal and Conservative leaders respectively. 

Many noted similarities between the two leaders’ proposed policies—both have promised to cut income tax and remove GST on new houses, and Carney swiftly made good on the Conservative mantra to axe the carbon tax in his first days as prime minister. But most respondents appear unconvinced of Poilievre’s leadership. 

“Carney’s more centrist approach is not so different,” said one respondent, “but I trust Carney and, most importantly, the competent team I expect he’ll surround himself with to execute far, far better than Poilievre, whose only job has ever been as a politician.” 

Experience was an oft-cited reason for confidence in Carney: one respondent said he’s “the only one with economic credentials during a crisis,” while another praised Carney’s “stewardship” during the Great Recession as Bank of Canada governor, a role to which he was appointed in February 2008. 

While most support the Liberal leader, just over 50 per cent of readers expect a Carney government to affect Canadian businesses somewhat positively, compared to 22 per cent who think it would be very positive.  

His detractors say his private-sector experience at places like Brookfield Asset Management is ethically compromising, and several respondents said his Liberal establishment ties—including experience as an informal economic adviser to Trudeau—mean he’s not the change they’re looking for. 

Respondents were almost evenly split on the impact of a Poilievre Conservative government on Canadian businesses, with several expressing mixed feelings about promises to reduce regulation in the face of tariffs. One said he wouldn’t “be any worse than Trudeau” for Canadian businesses. 

“While I think Poilievre’s government might have a short-term positive impact on Canadian businesses, I fear his governance and economic approach will cause lasting damage to the lower and middle classes,” one respondent said. 

The trade war still looms large. Seventy-three per cent of respondents said Canada’s response to U.S. tariffs is one of their top three issues this election cycle, followed by promoting economic growth and investment at 62 per cent, and government spending and taxes at 30 per cent. 

Other top election priorities included inflation and the cost of living, foreign policy outside of U.S.-Canada relations, and environment and climate change. 

Exceptional times even have some calling for exceptional measures: one reader suggested a “combined effort” from Poilievre and Carney to respond to economic threats from the United States. “Never done before, but then again, our country has not been this challenged before.”

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Methodology

The Logic emailed subscribers a private link to an online survey on March 24, and the survey closed at 6 p.m. EDT on March 26. Respondents’ identities were kept anonymous. Subscribers were asked “Which party leader do you think is best for Canada’s economy?” with the options “Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet,” “Liberal Leader Mark Carney,” “Green Party Leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault,” “Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre,” and “NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.” (The Bloc Québécois and Green party leaders received no responses and were not included in graphics.) They were then asked “What effect would you expect a Conservative government led by Pierre Poilievre to have on Canadian businesses?” with the options, “Very positive,” “Somewhat positive,” “Neutral,” “Somewhat negative,” and “Very negative.”

The same options were available for the following two questions: “What effect would you expect a Liberal government led by Mark Carney to have on Canadian businesses?” and “What effect would you expect an NDP government led by Jagmeet Singh to have on Canadian businesses?” 

Subscribers were then asked “Which party leader do you think is best suited to address the U.S.-Canada trade war?” with the same list of possible answers as the initial question.

Finally, they were asked “Which of the following election issues are most important to you? Mark your top three.” The possible answers included: “Response to tariffs and U.S. President Donald Trump”; “Foreign policy other than the U.S.”; “Government spending and taxes”; “Inflation and the cost of living”; “Housing”; “Immigration”; “Health care”; “Promoting economic growth and investment”; “Social inequality”; “Environment and climate change”; “Indigenous reconciliation”; and “Other/none of the above.”