A tentative U.S.-Iran peace deal could set the stage for a global oil supply glut next year, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday. Global oil demand is projected to rise by roughly two million barrels per day next year, while supply could surge by eight million barrels per day, the agency said in its first look at 2027 crude oil balances. (The Logic)

Talking point: The IEA said global oil stocks could still fall to historic lows this year after nearly four months of disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Non-OPEC producers, including Canada, have helped cushion the impact of lost Gulf supplies, the IEA said. The agency’s projected 2027 surplus, however, hinges on a rebound in Gulf exports, which could be slowed by lingering U.S.-Iran tensions and the need to clear mines from key shipping lanes. If the recovery materializes, the agency said, the resulting oil surplus could “provide a welcome respite to the market and an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories.”