Canada’s economy is feeling the weight of rising energy prices linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, the uncertain future of the North American trade pact and slowing population growth, says the latest quarterly outlook from Deloitte, which now forecasts GDP to rise 1.2 per cent in 2026. (The Logic)

Talking point: That’s lower than the 1.5 per cent GDP growth Deloitte’s chief economist Dawn Desjardins had previously forecast for 2026. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s 35 per cent tariffs, but trade remains unpredictable. Even less predictable is the fallout from the Iran war, which has led to a virtual shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Canada produces a lot of energy, but we also consume it. “We have to recognize that it is inflationary,” Desjardins said. Things look better later this year, but she said that assumes Canada keeps duty-free access to the U.S. for most goods.