The review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) could be a “turning point” ahead of a rebound this year, says the latest quarterly outlook from Deloitte—so long as any changes to the deal do not restrict or remove access to the U.S. market. (The Logic)

Talking point: The USMCA tariff carve-out has given many Canadian industries a “competitive edge,” said Wednesday’s report, but uncertainty over its future has kept business confidence low. A successful review could spur spending decisions, combined with Ottawa’s support for private investment in infrastructure and energy. “We know it’s not going to happen in a flash, but we know that if we put some capital to work now, it won’t be as at risk,” said chief economist Dawn Desjardins. She forecasts Canada’s GDP to rise 1.5 per cent in 2026. Ontario is expected to have the weakest growth (1.2 per cent), due to reliance on iron, steel and auto exports hit with Section 232 tariffs.