Gross domestic product averaged growth at an annual rate of 1.7 per cent over the first three months of the year, after stagnating at the end of 2024, Statistics Canada reported. Consumer spending led the rebound. A separate tally said GDP was unchanged in March from February, and that early data points to a 0.3 per cent increase in April. (The Logic)

Talking point: The GDP numbers were the final puzzle pieces ahead of the Bank of Canada’s interest-rate decision on Wednesday. Bay Street economists interpreted the data as support for their forecasts. Most see a cut coming next week, while a few think governor Tiff Macklem will wait until July because inflation remains elevated. Two things to keep in mind: the central bank estimates the economy can grow 2.5 per cent without causing inflation, and it seems unlikely that Canada’s deeply indebted households can be counted on to power the economy while paying higher interest rates. The safe bet is that Macklem will cut next week.