The province is projecting a budget surplus for 2024–25, driven by higher income tax revenue and royalties from heavy oil, which increased from $14.5 billion last year to a forecasted $15.6 billion this year, according to Finance Minister Nate Horner’s latest fiscal update. (The Logic) 

Talking point: Still, the minister warned that if crude oil prices stay below US$70 per barrel, lower revenues coupled with higher program expenses due to Alberta’s “unprecedented population growth” could force the province into deficit as early as 2025–26. West Texas Intermediate, an international crude benchmark, has hovered around US$70 for the last year, and prices have slumped recently on weak Chinese economic growth. Alberta’s program spending has swelled under Premier Danielle Smith, and is forecasted to hit $73.32 billion in 2024–25, up from $70.45 billion last year.