Ontario Premier Doug Ford said Wednesday his government has a plan to build at least 400,000 electric and hybrid vehicles in the province by 2030, part of an effort to keep its auto sector competitive amid a host of announcements of new battery plants in U.S. states.

The plan’s unveiling, at a Linamar facility in Guelph, comes the day after Ford spoke with Justin Trudeau to discuss Buy American legislation in the U.S., and as the prime minister arrived in Washington, D.C., for a North American leaders’ meeting that’s expected to see tense debate about electric-vehicle incentives that favour production in the U.S. over trade partners Canada and Mexico.

Ford said Ontario will be advocating for its auto sector in the U.S., as well, outlining a plan with four 2030 goals: repositioning the province’s industry for the “car of the future,” establishing a battery supply chain, innovating in every stage of development in the auto sector and investing in auto workers’ skills. The province is also proposing a guide to help municipalities adopt new transit technologies.

The timing of the province’s updated rhetoric on everything from critical minerals to suppliers and trade is no coincidence.

“For a large part, Ontario’s strategy, especially as it relates to new assembly facilities and battery plants, is ultimately going to rest with whether Canada is successful in addressing the discriminatory EV credits being proposed in the Build Back Better Bill moving through the House of Representatives,” Global Automakers of Canada president David Adams told The Logic. 

While Wednesday’s plan repackages a lot of previous work on things like intellectual property and job training, it does include some key new additions. Here’s what you need to know: 

On manufacturing: The province’s proposal, the second phase of a 2019 auto plan called Driving Prosperity, pins its goals on plans to attract a new assembly plant, and two to three battery plants. 

The revised document notes that Ford and SK Innovations are investing US$11.4 billion in Kentucky and Tennessee for electric-vehicle manufacturing, while General Motors and LG Chem will invest US$2.3 billion to build GM’s EV batteries in Ohio. 

Reading between the lines: GM and LG are set to get US$13.8 million in tax credits in Ohio, even after GM violated a previous tax-credit agreement with the state. In Tennessee, the incentives are an even-more-staggering US$884 million. Ontario’s plan notes that its government’s tax cuts have generally “reduced the cost of doing business” by nearly $7 billion a year, and touts a previous $56.4-million grant it made in March toward a vehicle-innovation network. But Ford did not say Wednesday how much Ontario would offer companies to locate new plants in the province. It has already committed $295 million to a Ford Motor retool in Oakville, and in 2019, the province said it would host a job-site challenge for municipalities to compete for the best assembly-plant site, and now says it has received 19 applications and retained an expert site selector.

A spokesperson for Ontario Economic Development Minister Vic Fedeli told The Logic the province is “exploring how we can best partner on strategic investment projects while being accountable and respectful of the taxpayer” with the new auto plan, and said the industry “recognizes Ontario’s fiscal challenges and we need to think carefully about the kinds of major strategic investments we want to partner on.” 

“Our government continues to be in discussion with some of the largest players in the sector about making major EV [and] battery production investments in Ontario,” spokesperson Kwok Wong said in an email. “We hope to be ready to share some exciting news in the very near future regarding these discussions.” 

Brian Kingston, president and CEO at the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association, told The Logic in an email that existing commitments from Ford, GM and Stellantis are a “strong start,” adding that “ensuring a competitive business environment and offering incentives on par with competitor jurisdictions is critical to winning new investment.” 

On critical minerals: Ontario said it is developing its “first-ever critical-mineral strategy.” Quebec and Alberta have already released theirs. The province also said its vehicle-innovation network will establish a new Northern Ontario site to focus on “EV battery technologies and to increase collaborations with the mineral sector.” 

Reading between the lines: When more details emerge about the critical-minerals plan, they should focus heavily on one specific area of the supply chain, said Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association. 

“There are no processors invested in Ontario that will take the rare minerals and turn them into battery cells. We need to focus on them and focus [on] the strength of our balance sheet to help them capitalize a set-up,” Volpe told The Logic. 

Battery Metals Association of Canada director Mitchell Smith told The Logic that EV and battery manufacturers must also pitch in with investments to shore up production of key minerals. 

“The trouble is that planning, designing and building a mine takes five to seven years, plus the time to satisfy regulators,” he said.

On consumer EV rebates: When asked at Wednesday’s press conference whether he would consider reinstating a rebate program for electric vehicles, Ford said that “before the election, I didn’t believe in giving millionaires rebates on over $100,000 Tesla cars” and other luxury vehicles. “Let’s see what the market dictates,” he said Wednesday. “We’re putting billions and billions of dollars into the electric-vehicle market, into companies.” At the press conference, Fedeli said the province has “opted to fund the supply side” of the electric-vehicle market. 

Reading between the lines: Ford did not answer a question about how the government would help families afford the new electric vehicles it hopes will be manufactured in the province, but Fedeli told reporters the supply-side funding would provide “well-paying jobs for their families” in battery production, mining and auto manufacturing.

“To complete the electric-vehicle supply chain in Ontario, more needs to be done to boost EV adoption. This includes helping consumers make the switch to an EV with purchase incentives and [building] a comprehensive EV-charging network,” said Kingston.

“Ontario needs to seriously contemplate its own incentive to assist in lowering the purchase price of EVs,” said Adams. 

On the supply chain: The Ontario Automotive Modernization Program, which helps small and medium auto-parts suppliers adopt new technologies, will be extended for a three years past its current end date of March 2022. The plan also calls for a new database to “showcase and share information on the province’s leading auto assets, facilities and researchers” for industry and investors. 

Reading between the lines: Volpe said initiatives like a database or marketing Ontario’s supply chain abroad are “small-ticket items,” but will nonetheless be meaningful when site selectors are producing short lists of destinations for investments. 

“Whatever it costs, we need to incur it. It’s like the printing costs for a ticket to a concert. Don’t skimp [on] the cheap stuff or you’ll find that you can’t get in.”

On international trade: Government officials said they plan to strengthen the province’s U.S. relations, and the plan proposes using “targeted marketing and promotional tactics” to “ensure that key markets in Asia, the U.S., Europe and beyond are aware of our strengths.”

Reading between the lines: Fedeli spokesperson Wong told The Logic the province plans to use its network of trade and investment offices to target nine priority markets that offer the best opportunity for investment and trade promotion, but did not say exactly how much the marketing efforts would cost.

Adams said that Ontario must still confront the provisions being debated in Washington, which pose “an existential threat to Canada’s vehicle manufacturing as it transitions to EV manufacturing” and place “a black cloud over Canada as an investment jurisdiction in not only the long term, but in the near term.”