A U.S. withdrawal from the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) would represent a total loss of $402 billion in real GDP by 2036 relative to the status quo baseline, says a new report from Deloitte Canada that imagines several scenarios for Canada-U.S. trade. (The Logic)

Talking point: The model for this worst-case scenario, which forecasts the loss of 163,000 jobs on average per year, assumes the end of carve-outs for CUSMA-compliant goods. Manufacturing is especially vulnerable, with autos and parts seeing a 28 per cent drop in real GDP. A 10 per cent tariff on oil and gas would also shrink those exports to the U.S. by 11 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively. Canada could make up for some of that loss with higher domestic sales and exports to new markets. “But for this alleviation to happen requires additional production and infrastructure investments and the assumption that global demand remains strong,” the authors wrote.

Sponsored Content

How to shift your workforce from AI experimentation to adoption

By Jessica Aftimus Rosa

The real-world economic offshoots of sovereign AI

By Deborah Aarts

Increasing healthcare access across Canada

By Deborah Aarts

Paid promotional content