The consumer price index increased 1.9 per cent in June from a year earlier, Statistics Canada reported. The measures that policymakers use to anticipate the trend hovered around three per cent, the upper end of the central bank’s comfort zone. (The Logic)

Talking point: Inflation looks mild on the surface because gasoline prices are lower than they were a year ago; excluding energy costs, the index increased 2.7 per cent. The two gauges the central bank created to filter out volatility each remained at around three per cent for the third consecutive month, implying upward pressure on prices. Year-over-year changes in the cost of durable goods jumped 2.7 per cent in June compared with two per cent in May, an indication that tariffs are stoking inflation. One example: women’s clothing prices were unchanged in June, a marked reversal from a 2.5-per-cent decline the previous month. Paired with evidence that hiring grew in June, the Bank of Canada probably will emphasize inflation risks and leave rates unchanged at its next policy announcement on July 30.