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Employment could also decline by an estimated 185,000 jobs over that period if both the U.S. tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory duties remain, said a Parliamentary Budget Office report on the economic impact of bilateral trade measures. (The Logic)
Talking point: The budget watchdog’s analysis said exports would take the biggest hit, declining by 7.6 per cent at the end of the fifth year compared to 2024, before U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House. The PBO estimated business investment would decrease by two per cent, while consumer prices would increase by 0.6 per cent. The report noted that the effect will be uneven across sectors and regions, and that the magnitude of the hit would depend on the ability of businesses to adjust. Meanwhile, the PBO projects a federal budget deficit of $63.3 billion in fiscal 2026-27—and $3 billion higher than average through 2030-31.
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