The federal Liberals’ increase to the inclusion rate on capital gains would net the treasury $3.3 billion from individual taxpayers over five years, not the $8.8 billion the government predicts, says a report from the C.D. Howe Institute released Thursday. (The Logic)

Talking point: The think tank expects the changes (widely panned by entrepreneurs) will keep many high-income taxpayers from paying the backstop “alternative minimum tax” aimed at high earners; they’ll pay more tax than without the capital-gains changes, but not much more. The institute also anticipates most of the burden will land on owners of Canadian-controlled private corporations, including startups. The Liberals have not brought in the legislation to put the 2024 budget’s capital-gains plans into effect; the opposition’s procedural manoeuvres in the House of Commons mean they might not get to do so soon.