Canada will likely avoid a recession, but much depends on keeping the U.S. tariff carve-out that’s linked to the North American trade pact, says a new report from Deloitte. (The Logic)

Talking point: Monday’s report by chief economist Dawn Desjardins says uncertainty has slowed business investment, but low interest rates, government support and the limited effect tariffs are having on prices so far are setting the stage for stronger GDP growth of 1.7 per cent next year. The report forecasts Canada’s real GDP to grow by 1.2 per cent in the third quarter after a decline of 1.6 per cent in the previous quarter, and to gain 1.3 per cent this year. Desjardins told The Logic any details in the Nov. 4 federal budget on indirect stimulus, such as cutting red tape, could get things moving. “Canadian companies will put dollars to work once they see that we are on the right trajectory.”