President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the retaliation they’ve provoked, combined with general policy uncertainty and indiscriminate cuts to federal staffing, will cause the year-over-year increase in gross domestic product to slow to 1.6 per cent from 2.8 per cent in 2024, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said in a new forecast. (The Logic)

Talking point: The U.S. will take its neighbours down with it; the OECD predicts growth in Canada will slow to one per cent from 1.5 per cent, while Mexico flirts with a recession. North America’s troubles will be too much for others to overcome, resulting in global economic growth of 2.9 per cent this year compared with 3.3 per cent in 2024. Trump’s yo-yo approach to trade policy makes forecasting all but impossible, so much so that the Bank of Canada currently is working with scenarios rather than a traditional outlook. Still, the OECD’s attempt shows what could result if current conditions become the norm. The Paris-based assembly of rich countries called on its members to strike new trading arrangements and encourage investment to offset paralyzing uncertainty.