Statistics Canada reported that hiring in July was little changed for a third consecutive month, although the employment rate, which measures the proportion of the working-age population that has a job, dropped to 60.9 per cent, down from a peak of 62.4 per cent at the start of 2023. Average hourly wages rose 5.2 per cent from a year earlier, compared with 5.4 per cent last month. (The Logic)
Talking point: Total hours worked increased one per cent from June, and the wage growth will help households manage the lingering effects of the inflation surge and higher borrowing costs. While the economy isn’t about to fall apart, there are signs of weakness below the surface. The employment rate of students returning to school in the fall plunged to 51.3 per cent, the lowest since the summer of 1997, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Also, the unemployment rate of immigrants who arrived within the previous five years is rising much faster than that of native-born Canadians. The Bank of Canada would like to see slower wage growth, but overall these numbers support the case for additional interest rate cuts.