The country’s top bank economists warned that deeper weaknesses remain in Canada’s economy despite the country dodging a recession last year. (The Logic)

Talking point: At Wednesday’s Economic Club event, National Bank’s Stéfane Marion said the country has a “crappy economy with a fantastic stock market,” adding that Canada would be in a recession “had the Blue Jays not made the World Series.” TD’s Beata Caranci said recent policy changes amount to course correction rather than growth-accelerating measures, with other panellists pointing to weak productivity, sluggish hiring and regional tariff-driven shocks as reasons for a fragile economic outlook. While the panel said Canada avoided a catastrophic tariff shock in 2025, some warned that the mere threat of a collapse in this year’s USMCA negotiations could be destabilizing. On a more positive note, CIBC’s Avery Shenfeld said that even in the absence of the USMCA—and without the fentanyl tariff—baseline tariffs on other Canadian products would be “minuscule.”