Briefing

USMCA worth $6.8 billion in GDP gains in 2025: Government analysis

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Global Affairs Canada (GAC) said the treaty will also preserve nearly 38,000 jobs. It calculated the effects in comparison to if the U.S. had withdrawn from NAFTA and continued to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium. (The Logic)

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Talking point: The government’s economic conclusions were based on factors like changing rules of origins for the auto industry, agricultural quotas, customs and trade-facilitation provisions and removing the possibility of financial-services data-localization requirements. The analysis said that last change improved Canada’s investment environment for banking and insurance, contributing to a GDP lift of a projected 0.12 per cent in 2025 through overall investment improvements under the treaty. But GAC said the USMCA’s digital and data provisions—which also include measures against algorithm audits and imposing liability for user content on online platforms—will produce gains “of a more qualitative nature,” and the financial results would be “limited.” It also said it’s “difficult to quantify” the impact of changes to patent and copyright terms and their lengths, because they will take several years to take effect.